Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) earnings on July 31, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Exxon Mobil Corporation earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

Exxon Mobil reported quarterly earnings that fell below what analysts expected, even though the company's sales were higher than outlined. The stock price declined by about 1% over the day.

XOM price around the earnings

155.44

Change: -1.0%

2026-07-31, 20:00 UTC

Start of the measured window End of the measured window
151.97 154.47 156.97 159.47 156.97
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
July 31, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • Start of the measured window
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Partial

Thesis published
Results released

Strong trend strength (+15.77% RS vs SPY), 100% beat rate, analyst Buy, but trajectory faded from +60 to +39.7 into event.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend
Stock experienced a strong run-up in recent days, peaking before the event and fading slightly into earnings.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
2.32
Analysts covering the stock
22
Average price target
167.23
Lowest price target
130
Highest price target
185
Upside to price target
6.5%
Quarterly earnings growth
-45.8%
Revenue growth
2.6%
Forward EPS
10.59
Trailing EPS
5.95
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
5
  • Strong buy: 3
  • Buy: 7
  • Hold: 14
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
3
Buy
7
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong sell
0
  • July 28, 2026 · B of A Securities: Downgrades rating (Buy → Neutral)
  • July 9, 2026 · Mizuho: Maintains rating (Neutral → Neutral)
  • July 2, 2026 · TD Cowen: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
  • June 29, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • June 16, 2026 · B of A Securities: Upgrades rating (Neutral → Buy)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Cautious
Mention volume
Low
Normalized volume
33%
News
Sources (8)

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
157.09
Average true range (ATR)
2.3%
Distance to 52-week high
-7.8%
14-day change (14d)
+7.6%
30-day change (30d)
+15.1%
30-day relative strength
+15.8%
SPY change (30d)
-0.7%
Nearest support
156.99
Distance to nearest support
0.1%
Nearest resistance
157.84
Distance to nearest resistance
0.5%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
0.85
  • Mid: 156.99 (0.1% away, 0.03 ATR, 10 touches)
  • Mid: 155.92 (0.7% away, 0.32 ATR, 15 touches)
  • Mid: 154.72 (1.5% away, 0.65 ATR, 23 touches)
  • Mid: 157.84 (0.5% away, 0.2 ATR, 7 touches)
  • Mid: 158.64 (1% away, 0.43 ATR, 12 touches)
  • Minor: 159.6 (1.6% away, 0.69 ATR, 9 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+6.1%
  • May 1, 2026: actual EPS 1.16 vs estimate 1.01 (surprise +15.1%)
  • January 30, 2026: actual EPS 1.71 vs estimate 1.69 (surprise +1.1%)
  • October 31, 2025: actual EPS 1.88 vs estimate 1.82 (surprise +3.0%)
  • August 1, 2025: actual EPS 1.64 vs estimate 1.56 (surprise +4.9%)

Expected move

Implied move
+0.0%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
1.7%
75th percentile move
2.4%
90th percentile move
3%
Up / down moves
9 / 11
Average up move
+2.1%
Average down move
-1.7%

Monitoring and close

What Exxon Mobil Corporation reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS3.52
EPS estimate3.6
EPS surprise-2.2%

Exxon posts record $14.7B profit, but shares drop on lower production and earnings miss. CEO offers pessimistic gas price forecast amid market uncertainty.

Sources (30)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Missed expectations

Heading into the open, results came in below expectations and the price is indicating -1.1% pre-market, a move in line with the stock's usual reaction (about 2%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: the comparable cases aren't consistent enough.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Partial
Consolidated
-1.0%
Max favorable move (MFE)
1.6%
Max adverse move (MAE)
3.6%