Carvana Co. (CVNA) earnings on July 29, 2026

CVNA price around the earnings

61.44

Change: -7.4%

Start of the measured window End of the measured window

53.33 58.66 63.99 69.32 66.32

July 29, 2026 July 30, 2026

Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
Start of the measured window
End of the measured window
Market open
No trading (market closed)
Starting price

Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Missed

Thesis published: 2026-07-29, 19:59 UTC
Results released: 2026-07-29, 20:06 UTC

Pre-release: Analysts optimistic (+35% upside) with strong beat history, but 14d trend strength reversal and very high IV (1.99) elevate event risk.

Context analyzed before publication

Trend: Trajectory improved to 50.5 but 14d trend strength sharply reversed negative; very high IV prices in substantial event risk.

Analysts

Evidence

Analyst consensus: Buy
Consensus average (1-5): 2
Analysts covering the stock: 21
Average price target: 89.83
Lowest price target: 67
Highest price target: 120
Upside to price target: 34.9%
Quarterly earnings growth: 15.7%
Revenue growth: 52%
Forward EPS: 1.92
Trailing EPS: 1.72
Analyst moves in the last 60 days: 7

Strong buy: 6
Buy: 10
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
Strong sell: 0

Strong buy: 6
Buy: 10
Hold: 7
Sell: 1
Strong sell: 0

July 22, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 21, 2026 · Wells Fargo: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
July 14, 2026 · Jefferies: Maintains rating (Buy → Buy)
June 11, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Outperform → Outperform)
June 5, 2026 · RBC Capital: Reiterates rating (Outperform → Outperform)
June 5, 2026 · BTIG: Reiterates rating (Buy → Buy)
June 2, 2026 · Evercore ISI Group: Maintains rating (In-Line → In-Line)

News and sentiment

Evidence

Sentiment

Sentiment: Cautious
Mention volume: Low
Normalized volume: 33%

News

Sources (4)

Barclays Maintains Overweight on Carvana, Raises Price Target to $94 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $85 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Jefferies Maintains Buy on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $90 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Why Is Carvana Stock Surging Wednesday? (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga

Technicals

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed: 66.08
Average true range (ATR): 5.5%
Distance to 52-week high: -30.5%
14-day change (14d): -6.2%
30-day change (32d): +6.0%
30-day relative strength: +4.4%
SPY change (32d): +1.6%
Nearest support: 65.88
Distance to nearest support: 0.3%
Nearest resistance: 66.38
Distance to nearest resistance: 0.5%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d): 0.72

Major: 65.88 (0.3% away, 0.05 ATR, 56 touches)
Major: 65.1 (1.5% away, 0.27 ATR, 33 touches)
Mid: 64.66 (2.2% away, 0.39 ATR, 19 touches)

Major: 66.38 (0.5% away, 0.08 ATR, 36 touches)
Major: 67.15 (1.6% away, 0.29 ATR, 25 touches)
Major: 68.28 (3.3% away, 0.6 ATR, 37 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise: +67.6%

April 29, 2026: actual EPS 0.34 vs estimate 0.3 (surprise +11.7%)
February 18, 2026: actual EPS 0.84 vs estimate 0.24 (surprise +259.0%)
October 29, 2025: actual EPS 0.21 vs estimate 0.26 (surprise -22.0%)
July 30, 2025: actual EPS 0.26 vs estimate 0.21 (surprise +21.6%)

Expected move

Implied move: +10.4%
Source: Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move: 15.3%
75th percentile move: 26%
90th percentile move: 39.1%
Up / down moves: 12 / 8
Average up move: +21.6%
Average down move: -13.1%

Monitoring and close

What Carvana Co. reported

Status: Finished

Actual EPS	0.42
EPS estimate	0.36
EPS surprise	+16.7%
Revenue	$7,376 million
Revenue estimate	$6,907 million
Revenue surprise	+6.8%

Carvana drops 30% in 2026 despite record revenue, while CarMax rises 50%. S&P500 stocks are moving in today's session.

Sources (32)

Carvana Is Down 30% in 2026 While CarMax Is Up 50%. Should Investors Sell One and Buy the Other? (opens in a new tab) — 24/7 Wall St.
BNP Paribas Maintains Neutral on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $69 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
CVNA Stock On Track For Worst Day In 6 Months After 2026 Guidance Disappoints — But Wall Street Deems Near-Term Profitability Pressure Temporary (opens in a new tab) — Stocktwits
RBC Capital Maintains Outperform on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $82 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana shares slide despite record quarterly profit (opens in a new tab) — Proactive
Evercore ISI Group Maintains In-Line on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $75 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana Sinks on Forecast; Chipotle Raises Guidance | Stock Movers (opens in a new tab) — Bloomberg
Carvana Stock Falls 10% After Earnings as Guidance Leaves More Questions Than Answers (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
Citizens Maintains Market Outperform on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $83 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
CVNA Q2 Earnings Call Highlights Machine-Building Focus (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Carvana Reports Record Q2 Beat — Stock Falls Anyway (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Wells Fargo Maintains Overweight on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $80 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana stock tumbles as full-year guidance disappoints despite record quarter (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo Finance
Morgan Stanley Maintains Overweight on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $90 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana Stock Falls After Earnings as Guidance Leaves More Questions Than Answers (opens in a new tab) — Barrons.com
BTIG Maintains Buy on Carvana, Lowers Price Target to $87 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Needham Reiterates Buy on Carvana, Maintains $120 Price Target (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana Co (CVNA) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Revenue, Strong ... (opens in a new tab) — GuruFocus.com
Carvana Q2 Earnings Call Highlights (opens in a new tab) — MarketBeat
Carvana Co. (CVNA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript (opens in a new tab) — SeekingAlpha
Hot Market for Used Cars Pushed Carvana to Record Profit (opens in a new tab) — The Wall Street Journal
Compared to Estimates, Carvana (CVNA) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Why Did CVNA Stock Drop After-Hours Despite Q2 Beat? (opens in a new tab) — Stocktwits
Carvana (CVNA) Matches Q2 Earnings Estimates (opens in a new tab) — Zacks
Robinhood, Arm, Carvana: Stocks moving on earnings in after-hours (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo Finance Video
Carvana Says Co Remains Firmly On The Path To Selling 3M Cars Per Year And To Achieving 13.5% Adjusted EBITDA Margin By 2030 To 2035 (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana's Q2 Collision: Stock Tumbles Despite Earnings Beat (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana (NYSE:CVNA) Stock Falls After Q2 Beat as Profit Outlook Disappoints (opens in a new tab) — ChartMill
Carvana’s (NYSE:CVNA) Q2 CY2026 Sales Beat Estimates But Stock Drops 15.7% (opens in a new tab) — StockStory
Carvana reported earnings of $0.42 per share, beating the $0.36 estimate, and revenue of $7.376B, above the $6.907B expected. — Benzinga
Carvana Q2 EPS $0.42 Beats $0.36 Estimate, Sales $7.376B Beat $6.907B Estimate (opens in a new tab) — Benzinga
Carvana Announces Record Second Quarter 2026 Results (opens in a new tab) — Yahoo

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict: Beat expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on both earnings and revenue and the price is indicating -7.7% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 15%). The figures overturn the prior optimistic scenario. Across our market history, in the 716 similar cases the close held that direction 96% of the time.

How the stock reacted

Outcome: Missed
Consolidated: -7.4%
Max favorable move (MFE): 0.4%
Max adverse move (MAE): 21%