Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) earnings on August 4, 2026

Before the market opens Q2 2026

More Apollo Global Management, Inc. earnings

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Apollo Global Management missed profit expectations but beat sales forecasts, highlighting growth in private markets; the stock rose nearly 3% by the close.

APO price around the earnings

133.20

Change: +2.9%

2026-08-04, 20:00 UTC

End of the measured window
126.00 128.54 131.08 133.62 129.42
Price series around the eventClosing price per minute from before the event to the end of the measured window.
August 4, 2026
  • Price: green if it ends above the starting price; red if it ends below
  • End of the measured window
  • Market open
  • Starting price
Price series around the event

Prior thesis

Prior outlook: Optimistic Outcome: Accurate

Thesis published
Results released

Optimistic but cautious due to regulatory risk

Experts are optimistic because analysts cite a solid upside and the company has consistently beaten earnings. However, recent regulatory concerns and a crowded retail case have caused a sharp drop in analyst scores, creating a mixed but still positive outlook.

Context analyzed before publication

Summary
Optimistic but cautious due to regulatory risk
Playbook
The stock has strong analyst support and a strong recent record of beating earnings, but recent regulatory scrutiny and extreme retail interest have increased uncertainty. Historically, such events have led to price volatility.
Trend
Analyst confidence dropped sharply in days

Analysts

Drivers

  • Analysts Positive

    The average price target is $148, with 19 analysts rating it a 'Buy' and several major banks showing support.

Evidence

Analyst consensus
Buy
Consensus average (1-5)
1.76
Analysts covering the stock
19
Average price target
147.63
Lowest price target
126
Highest price target
173
Upside to price target
14.1%
Revenue growth
-9.2%
Forward EPS
10.67
Trailing EPS
1.59
Analyst moves in the last 60 days
6
  • Strong buy: 4
  • Buy: 11
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 0
  • Strong sell: 0
Strong buy
4
Buy
11
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong sell
0
  • July 21, 2026 · Morgan Stanley: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 20, 2026 · HSBC: Initiates coverage (Buy)
  • July 13, 2026 · RBC Capital: Maintains rating (Sector Perform → Sector Perform)
  • July 13, 2026 · BMO Capital: Maintains rating (Market Perform → Market Perform)
  • July 13, 2026 · Piper Sandler: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)
  • July 9, 2026 · Barclays: Maintains rating (Overweight → Overweight)

News and sentiment

Drivers

  • News & sentiment Negative

    Regulatory scrutiny on private credit is a major concern, and extreme retail optimism (92%) suggests a crowded case that could lead to sharp moves.

Evidence

Sentiment
Sentiment
Constructive
Mention volume
High
Normalized volume
99%
News
Sources (5)

Technicals

Drivers

  • Technical Negative

    While short-term trend is positive, the analyst score has collapsed from 48 to 12 in six days, signaling a rapid loss of confidence.

Evidence

Price when the context was analyzed
129.5
Average true range (ATR)
3.2%
Distance to 52-week high
-17.1%
14-day change (14d)
+9.5%
30-day change (32d)
+9.2%
30-day relative strength
+7.4%
SPY change (32d)
+1.7%
Nearest support
128.96
Distance to nearest support
0.4%
Nearest resistance
130.59
Distance to nearest resistance
0.9%
Volume accumulation ratio (14d / 46d)
1.07
  • Major: 128.96 (0.4% away, 0.13 ATR, 40 touches)
  • Major: 127.4 (1.6% away, 0.51 ATR, 29 touches)
  • Major: 125.86 (2.8% away, 0.88 ATR, 49 touches)
  • Major: 130.59 (0.9% away, 0.27 ATR, 39 touches)
  • Major: 131.41 (1.5% away, 0.47 ATR, 34 touches)
  • Major: 132.32 (2.2% away, 0.69 ATR, 39 touches)

Trends

Evidence

Average earnings surprise
+10.6%
  • May 6, 2026: actual EPS 1.94 vs estimate 1.88 (surprise +2.9%)
  • February 9, 2026: actual EPS 2.47 vs estimate 2.04 (surprise +21.3%)
  • November 4, 2025: actual EPS 2.17 vs estimate 1.9 (surprise +14.2%)
  • August 5, 2025: actual EPS 1.92 vs estimate 1.84 (surprise +4.2%)

Expected move

Drivers

  • Past earnings Positive

    The company has beaten earnings expectations in every quarter, with an average surprise of 10.6%, showing consistent outperformance.

Implied move
+4.0%
Source
Options chain

Reactions over its last 20 earnings

Median move
2.5%
75th percentile move
5.6%
90th percentile move
7.4%
Up / down moves
13 / 7
Average up move
+3.3%
Average down move
-3.8%

Monitoring and close

What Apollo Global Management, Inc. reported

Status
Finished
Actual EPS2.11
EPS estimate2.17
EPS surprise-2.8%
Revenue$11,153 million
Revenue estimate$5,690 million
Revenue surprise+96.0%

Apollo released its Q2 2026 earnings call transcript on August 4. The prior quarter showed strong revenue but missed estimates, with the flagship fund above $12 billion.

Sources (14)

Pre-market second reading after the results

Verdict
Missed expectations

Heading into the open, results beat expectations on revenue but not on earnings, and the price is indicating -0.6% pre-market, a move below the stock's usual reaction (about 2%). The figures don't confirm the prior scenario: that move is too small to draw conclusions from.

How the stock reacted

Outcome
Accurate
Consolidated
+2.9%
Max favorable move (MFE)
3.3%
Max adverse move (MAE)
2.3%